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      Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
      Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk



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Will there be a dollar crisis?   (Nobel Laureate   Paul Krugman)
"Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually.
... any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough ... would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect.
As a result, there will at some point have to be ... a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply ..."   more

Principle of Uncertain Future
The theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale is proved.
The general lemma: If the mean of a variable tends to a border of a final range then the central moments of a variable tends to 0.
The general theorem: If the central moment of a variable cannot come nearer to zero more close, than on finite value, then the mean of a variable cannot come nearer to border of this range more close, than on finite value.
The theorem for probability: Let the probability is a limit to which the probability estimation tends. Then, if the mean of the estimation of probability cannot come nearer to border of this range more close, than on finite value the similar statement is true for probability also.


Updated (partially)   2014.01.21.

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