 |
 |
|||||||
 |
||||||||
 |
 |
 |
||||||
|
Modeling Forecasting Planning
(Forecasting)
Metadata (refereed articles mainly) See also Forecasting items
Contents
(in new windows)
1. MFP Metadata News 2. MFP Metadata Events ( 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 ) 3. Problems 4. New Principle of Modeling, Forecasting, Planning - Principle of Uncertain Future 5. New Results. Solution of Problems 5.1. Solution of Problems 5.2. Formula of Forecasting
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting Michael Peter Clements and David F. Hendry OUP Catalogue from Oxford University Press 2011 Abstract Moment tests for density forecast evaluation in the presence of parameter estimation uncertainty Chen, Yi?Ting Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract Nonparametric analysis of stochastic systems with nonlinear functional heterogeneity Vladimir Malugin and Mikhail Vasilkov Applied Econometrics 2011 Abstract Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights Helmut Luetkepohl Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) 2011 Abstract Information or Institution? On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy Roland Doehrn and Christoph M. Schmidt Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) 2011 Abstract Realized volatility forecasting and market microstructure noise Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev and Nour Meddahi Journal of Econometrics 2011 Abstract Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Modeling Forecasting Planning
2. MFP Metadata Events Metadata added/revised in 2011
Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia Dario Rukelj and Barbara Ulloa Financial Theory and Practice 2011 Abstract The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting Michael Peter Clements and David F. Hendry OUP Catalogue from Oxford University Press 2011 Abstract Moment tests for density forecast evaluation in the presence of parameter estimation uncertainty Chen, Yi?Ting Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract Nonparametric analysis of stochastic systems with nonlinear functional heterogeneity Vladimir Malugin and Mikhail Vasilkov Applied Econometrics 2011 Abstract Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights Helmut Luetkepohl Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) 2011 Abstract Information or Institution? On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy Roland Doehrn and Christoph M. Schmidt Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) 2011 Abstract Realized volatility forecasting and market microstructure noise Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev and Nour Meddahi Journal of Econometrics 2011 Abstract Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks Jennifer L. Castle, Nich 2010 Abstract Commentary on Forecast Error vs. Forecast Accuracy Mark Little Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2011 Abstract Commentary on Forecast Error vs. Forecast Accuracy Jim Hoover Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2011 Abstract Assessing the accuracy of business level forecasts Pete Brodie, Tullio Buccellato and Eric Michael Scheffel Economic and Labour Market Review 2011 Abstract Target Price Accuracy Alexander G. Kerl BuR - Business Research 2011 Abstract Forecasting Future Technology Roy L. Pearson Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2011 Abstract The crisis in economic theory Alan Kirman Rivista Italiana degli Economisti 2011 Abstract Assessing Uncertainty in New-Product Forecasts Nick Guthrie and Des Markland Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2010 Abstract Forecast Process Design: Part 2, The Forecast Reliability Assurance Model (FRAM) Joe Smith Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2010 Abstract Book Review of “The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions” by Michael Gilliland Ulrich Kusters Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2010 Abstract The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism Adam Gordon Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2010 Abstract A Systems Approach to Forecasting David Orrell and Patrick Eugene McSharry Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2009 Abstract Forecasting Sharp Changes Roy Batchelor Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2009 Abstract Taking Stock: Assessing the True Cost of Forecast Errors Paul Goodwin Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2009 Abstract Quantifying costs of forecast errors: A case study of the warehouse environment Nada R. Sanders and Gregory A. Graman Omega 2009 Abstract FORECASTING IN FUZZY SYSTEMS Hsiao-Fan Wang and Ruey-Chyn Tsaur International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM) 2011 Abstract Seemingly unrelated regressions with spatial error components Badi Baltagi and Alain Pirotte Empirical Economics 2011 Title Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models Maria Grazia De Giorgi, Antonio Ficarella and Marco Tarantino Applied Energy 2011 Abstract Long-term macroeconometric models: The case of Poland Wladyslaw Welfe Economic Modelling 2011 Abstract The appeal of vague financial forecasts Ning Du, David V. Budescu, Marjorie K. Shelly and Thomas C. Omer Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2011 Abstract The role of the forecasting process in improving forecast accuracy and operational performance Pamela Danese and Matteo Kalchschmidt International Journal of Production Economics 2011 Abstract Role of forecast effort on supply chain profitability under various information sharing scenarios Xiaowei Zhu, Samar K. Mukhopadhyay and Xiaohang Yue International Journal of Production Economics 2011 Abstract Evaluation of forecasting error measurements and techniques for intermittent demand Peter Wallstrom and Anders Segerstedt International Journal of Production Economics 2010 Abstract Combining probability forecasts Michael Peter Clements and David . Harvey International Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models Christian T. Brownlees and Giampiero M. Gallo International Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7 Jonas Dovern and Johannes Weisser International Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract Forecasting accuracy of wind power technology diffusion models across countries Alessandra Dalla Valle and Claudia Furlan International Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy Dilek Onkal, Michael Lawrence and K. Zeynep SayIm International Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract The predictive validity of peer review: A selective review of the judgmental forecasting qualities of peers, and implications for innovation in science Wim G.G. Benda and Tim C.E. Engels International Journal of Forecasting 2011 Abstract The informativeness of analyst forecast revisions and the valuation of R&D-intensive firms Yuan Huang and Guochang Zhang Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 2011 Abstract Combining forecasts - forty years later Kenneth F. Wallis Applied Financial Economics 2011 Abstract Forecasting construction tender price index in Hong Kong using vector error correction model James Wong and S. Thomas Ng Construction Management & Economics 2010 Abstract Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Metadata added/revised in 2010
The next 100 years: a forecast for the 21st century Juan Fernando Palacio Revista de Economia Institucional 2010 Title An Utility-Based Diffusion Model Applied to the Digital Camera Case Yair Orbach and Gila E. Fruchter Review of Marketing Science 2010 Abstract Australian evidence on the accuracy of analysts' expectations: The value of consensus and timeliness prior to the earnings announcement Xiaomeng Chen Accounting Research Journal 2010 Abstract Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy Thomas Fullerton and George Novela Journal for Economic Forecasting 2010 Abstract Do forecasts improve over time?: A case study of the accuracy of sales forecasting at a German car manufacturer Robert Rieg International Journal of Accounting and Information Management 2010 Abstract To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information? Huiyu Huang and Tae-Hwy Lee Econometric Reviews 2010 Abstract Forecasting the 10?year US treasury rate Hamid Baghestani Journal of Forecasting 2010 Abstract Neural network-based fuzzy auto-regressive models of different orders to forecast Taiwan stock index Tiffany Hui-Kuang Yu, Kun-Huang Huarng and Rapon Rianto International Journal of Economics and Business Research 2009 Abstract Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability Genaro Sucarrat Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2009 Abstract Modeling Jump and Continuous Components in the Volatility of Oil Futures Tseng-Chan Tseng, Huimin Chung and Chin-Sheng Huang Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 2009 Abstract Asymmetric Conditional Volatility Models: Empirical Estimation and Comparison of Forecasting Accuracy Dumitru Miron and Cristiana Tudor Journal for Economic Forecasting 2010 Abstract Forecast Precision and Portfolio Performance Alex Kane Journal of Financial Econometrics 2010 Abstract Biased Estimation in a Simple Extension of a Standard Error Correction Model Christian Muller Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES) 2009 Abstract On the accuracy of Federal Reserve forecasts of the budget deficit-output ratio Hamid Baghestani Applied Economics Letters 2010 Abstract Forecasting accuracy of stochastic volatility, GARCH and EWMA models under different volatility scenarios Jie Ding and Nigel Meade Applied Financial Economics 2010 Abstract Forecasting with quantitative methods: the impact of special events in time series Konstantinos Nikolopoulos Applied Economics 2010 Abstract Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors Michael Hoerger, Stuart W. Quirk, Richard E. Lucas and Thomas H. Carr Judgment and Decision Making 2010 Abstract Long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility Kyongwook Choi, Wei-Choun Yu and Eric Zivot Journal of International Money and Finance 2010 Abstract Predicting the signs of forecast errors Nazaria Solferino and Robert Waldmann Journal of Forecasting 2010 Abstract Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries Athanasios Koulakiotis and Apostolos Dasilas International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance 2009 Abstract Testing for predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks (in Russian) Pavel Yaskov Quantile 2010 Abstract Can the Fed predict the state of the economy? Tara M. Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman O. Stekler Economics Letters 2010 Abstract Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts Michael Peter Clements European Economic Review 2010 Abstract Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models George Kapetanios and Anthony Yates Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Abstract Statistics, Econometrics and Forecasting Arnold Zellner Cambridge Books from Cambridge University Press 2004 Abstract Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities Anne Sofie Jore, James Mitchell and Shaun P. Vahey Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Abstract Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Sheng Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Abstract Forecast comparisons in unstable environments Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Abstract Forecast uncertainty: sources, measurement and evaluation Matteo Ciccarelli and Kirstin Hubrich Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Abstract Evaluating long term forecasts George M. Lady Energy Economics 2010 Abstract The hot-growth companies: How well do analysts predict their performance? Susana Yu, Richard A. Lord and Gwendolyn Webb Journal of Economics and Business 2010 Abstract Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions? Paul Goodwin, Dilek Onkal and Mary Thomson European Journal of Operational Research 2010 Abstract Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time-varying weights Lennart Hoogerheide, Richard Kleijn, Francesco Ravazzolo, Herman K. van Dijk and Marno Verbeek Journal of Forecasting 2010 Abstract Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality? Philip Hans Franses and Rianne Legerstee Journal of Forecasting 2010 Abstract Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities Todd Clark and Michael McCracken Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Abstract Fuzzy adaptive decision-making for boundedly rational traders in speculative stock markets Stelios Bekiros European Journal of Operational Research 2010 Abstract Assessing the Accuracy of Event Forecasts Ching-Chuan Tsong Journal of Economics and Management 2009 Abstract Forecast mean squared error reductionin the VAR(1) process J. Fredrik Lindstrom and H. E. T. Holgersson Journal of Applied Statistics 2009 Abstract The uncertain economic outlook and the policy responses Janet L. Yellen Speech 2009 Abstract News about the future and economic fluctuations Keith Sill Business Review 2009 Abstract State of the art of inflation targeting Gill Hammond Handbooks from Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England 2009 Abstract Earnings guidance and market uncertainty Jonathan L. Rogers, Douglas J. Skinner and Andrew Van Buskirk Journal of Accounting and Economics 2009 Abstract Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability Spyros Makridakis and Nassim Taleb International Journal of Forecasting 2009 Abstract Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world Spyros Makridakis, Robin Miles Hogarth and Anil Gaba International Journal of Forecasting 2009 Abstract Living in a world of low levels of predictability Spyros Makridakis and Nassim Taleb International Journal of Forecasting 2009 Abstract Modeling and forecasting stock return volatility using a random level shift model Yang K. Lu and Pierre Perron Journal of Empirical Finance 2010 Abstract How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage? Libor Krkoska and Utku Teksoz Economic Systems 2009 Abstract Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Metadata added/revised in 2009
Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors Malte Knuppel Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre 2009 Abstract Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability Genaro Sucarrat Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Jou... 2009 Abstract A Note on Updating Forecasts When New Information Arrives between Two Periods Pu Chen Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2009 Abstract Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data Martin Mandler Philipps-Universitat Marburg, Faculty of Business ... 2009 Abstract Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Austria from 1998 to 2006 Christian Ragacs and Martin Schneider Monetary Policy & the Economy 2007 Abstract Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Sheng University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economic... 2009 Abstract Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy Peter Tulip Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 2009 Abstract Pooling forecasts in linear rational expectations models Gregor W. Smith Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2009 Abstract Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? Stephen Kolassa Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2008 Abstract Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study Robert Rieg Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2008 Abstract Does information uncertainty affect investors' responses to analysts' forecast revisions? An investigation of accounting restatements Ran R. Barniv and Jian Cao Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 2009 Abstract Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy Todd Clark and Michael McCracken Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 2009 Abstract Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights Lennart Hoogerheide, Richard Kleijn, Francesco Ravazzolo, Herman K. van Dijk and Marno Verbeek Tinbergen Institute 2009 Abstract Bias Correction and Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy Hyeongwoo Kim and Nazif Durmaz University Library of Munich, Germany 2009 Abstract Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting: problem or pseudo-problem? Bennett McCallum Economic Quarterly 2009 Abstract How to Track Forecast Accuracy to Guide Forecast Process Improvement Jim Hoover Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2009 Abstract Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation Edward N. Gamber, Julie K. Smith and Matthew Weiss The George Washinton University, Department of Eco... 2008 Abstract A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle Jeremy Smith and Kenneth F. Wallis Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2009 Abstract Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi Review of Economic Studies 2009 Abstract Second order bias in a forecast evaluation statistic (in Russian) Victor Kitov Quantile 2009 Abstract Text The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates Jian Wang and Jason J. Wu Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (... 2009 Abstract Text The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output Evan Tanner and Kevin Carey Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a ... 2008 Abstract Text Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Sheng Journal of Econometrics 2008 Abstract Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Metadata added/revised in 2008
Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts: A Historic Overview Zuzana Antonicova, Karel Musil, Lubos Ruzicka and Jan Vlcek Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volum... 2008 Abstract Text Predicting the Signs of Forecast Errors Nazaria Solferino and Robert Waldmann Tor Vergata University, CEIS 2008-11 Abstract Text The Frequency of Financial Analysts' Forecast Revisions: Theory and Evidence about Determinants of Demand for Predisclosure Information Craig W. Holden and Pamela S. Stuerke Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 2008-09 Abstract Non-stationarity and meta-distribution Dominique Guegan HAL 2008-03 Abstract Text Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study Robert Rieg Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2008 Abstract Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? Stephen Kolassa Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2008 Abstract Economic Forecasting Graham Elliott and Allan Timmermann Journal of Economic Literature 2008 Abstract Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities Todd E. Clark and Michael W. McCracken Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2008 Abstract Text Evaluating U.S. presidential election forecasts and forecasting equations James E. Campbell International Journal of Forecasting 2008 Abstract Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty Anthony Garratt, Gary Koop and ShaunP. Vahey Economic Journal 2008 Abstract Forecasting long memory time series when occasional breaks occur Luisa Bisaglia and Margherita Gerolimetto Economics Letters 2008 Abstract Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities Todd Clark and Michael McCracken Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (... 2007 Abstract Text Editorial: Probabilistic forecasting Tilmann Gneiting Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A 2008 Title The relationship between market sentiment and equity premium: an artificial neural network analysis Nik R. Hassan and Shee Q. Wong International Journal of Electronic Finance 2008 Abstract The psychology of economic forecasting Karl Jonas Wennberg and Bjorn Nykvist Global Business and Economics Review 2007 Abstract Professional prognosticators: Is forecasting a science or an art? Doug Campbell Region Focus 2007 Abstract Text Realized Volatility: A Review Michael McAleer and Marcelo Medeiros Econometric Reviews 2008 Abstract Recognizing and Forecasting the Sign of Financial Local Trends using Hidden Markov Models Manuele Bigeco, Enrico Grosso and Edoardo Otranto Centre for North South Economic Research, Universi... 2008 Abstract Text Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities? David Johnstone Theory and Decision 2007 Abstract Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors David Reifschneider and Peter Tulip Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (... 2007 Abstract Text Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Metadata added/revised in 2007
Quantifying risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts Malte Knuppel and Todter, Karl-Heinz Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre 2007 Abstract Text An Evaluation of the Exchange Rate Forecasting Performance of the New Keynesian Model Francis Vitek The Icfai Journal of Financial Economics 2007 Abstract Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Lander Konstantin Kholodilin, Boriss Siliverstovs and Stefan Kooths DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research 2007 Abstract The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process James Borneman Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2007 Abstract Forecasting Software: A Progress Report for the First Seven Years of the 21st Century Jim Hoover Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2007 Abstract Chaos in economics and finance Dominique Guegan Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'E... 2007-06 Abstract Text Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error Thomas R. Willemain Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2007 Abstract Hot New Research: Recent Studies on Forecasting Know-How, Training, and Information Sharing Paul Goodwin Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Fo... 2007 Abstract Text Modeling Great Depressions: The Depression in Finland in the 1990s Juan Carlos Conesa, Timothy Kehoe and Kim Ruhl National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 2007-11 Abstract Text Planning with ‘Human Face’: Tamil Nadu’s Approach towards ‘Correctives’ K. Jothi Sivagnanam University Library of Munich, Germany 2006-12 Abstract Text Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA Ivan Kitov, Oleg Kitov and Svetlana Dolinskaya University Library of Munich, Germany 2007-01 Abstract Text Handbook of Economic Forecasting G. Elliott, C. Granger and A. Timmermann Handbook of Economic Forecasting from Elsevier 2006 Title Multivariate autoregressive modeling of time series count data using copulas Andreas Heinen and Erick Rengifo Journal of Empirical Finance 2007 Title Structured analogies for forecasting Kesten Charles Green and J. Scott Armstrong International Journal of Forecasting 2007 Title Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction J. Scott Armstrong International Journal of Forecasting 2007 Title Soviet Planning Archives: the Files that Bergson could not see1 Andrei Markevich Comparative Economic Studies 2005 Abstract Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models Jeff Tayman, Stanley Smith and Jeffrey Lin Population Research and Policy Review 2007 Abstract How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys Gultekin Isiklar and Kajal Lahiri International Journal of Forecasting 2007 Abstract How far ahead do people plan? John D. Hey and Julia A. Knoll Economics Letters 2007 Abstract Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts Yonca Ertimur, Jayanthi Sunder and Shyam V. Sunder Journal of Accounting Research 2007 Abstract Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. Problems of Modeling
(more)
The well-determined (but paradoxical) facts are: For positive (gains) risky prospects, people typically 1) overweight low probabilities but 2) underweight high probabilities. For negative (losses) risky prospects, people typically 3) underweight low probabilities but 4) overweight high probabilities. Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. New Principle of Modeling, Forecasting, Planning
(more)
Principle of Uncertain Future
(simplified as much as possible)
The principle
The probability of a future event contains uncertainty.
4.1. The first consequence of the principle
Suppose we plan to test the probability value, which is equal to 99%. Suppose the probability uncertainty value is equal to 5%. Then, evidently, the real mean value of probability cannot be as high as 99%. Generally, High probabilities will decrease.
Phigh real < Phigh planned
Analogously, but considering the second consequence of the principle (see below),
Low probabilities can increase.
Plow real possible > Plow planned
4.2. The second consequence of the principle
The total probability of unforeseen future events is more than 0%
Σ Punforeseen real > 0%
Hence,
The present total probability of future events is less than 100%
Σ Pplanned < 100%
or
The present probability system of future events is incomplete. Top
------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. New Results. Solution of Problems
(more)
5.1. Solution of Problems of Modeling
The well-determined (but paradoxical) facts are: For positive (gains) risky prospects, people typically 1) overweight low probabilities but 2) underweight high probabilities. For negative (losses) risky prospects, people typically 3) underweight low probabilities but 4) overweight high probabilities. Denoting the real value of probability, which value is near 100% as Phigh real , the (positive) value of gain as G and the (negative) value of loss as -G , we obtain
Phigh real < Phigh planned
and
G * Phigh real < G * Phigh planned
-G * Phigh real > -G * Phigh planned
2) the underweight of high probabilities gains and 4) the overweight of high probabilities losses. Denoting the real value of probability, which value is near 0% as Plow real possible we obtain
Plow real possible > Plow planned
and
G * Plow real possible > G * Plow planned
-G * Plow real possible < -G * Plow planned
1) the overweight of low probabilities gains and 3) the underweight of low probabilities losses. Thus, the above facts can be explained naturally and uniformly. Top
5.2. New Results
5.2.1. Formula of Forecasting
The principle of uncertain future causes an increase of forecasting error and structural complexity. The principle of uncertain future originates a formula of forecasting:
F ≅ Fbase {1+Σφaddit}
{∏(1+kmultiplicat)} {1±Δerror}
Top
5.2.2. "Impossibilities" in Forecasting
Possible conclusions from the formula of forecasting and the first consequence of the principle: "Absolutely exact extrapolation forecasting is impossible" "Exact middle-range extrapolation forecasting is unattainable" Possible conclusions from the formula of forecasting and from the first and second consequences of the principle: "Absolutely reliable extrapolation forecasting is impossible" "Exact long-range extrapolation forecasting is impossible" "Quantitative extra-long-range extrapolation forecasting is impossible" (Growing quantitative uncertainties and unforeseen events may modify an essential parameter for more than 50% from its maximal value) Possible conclusion from the formula of forecasting and the second consequence of the principle: "Complete qualitative extra-long-range extrapolation forecasting is impossible" (Unforeseen events may add an unforeseen qualitative feature in a complete picture) Top
5.2.3. "Necessities" in Planning
Possible conclusions from the formula of forecasting and the principle of uncertain future in the scope of the concept "Future as the extrapolated Present": "Future is Modifications and Changes" "Short-term and Medium-term Planning is Necessary to be Flexible" "The Necessary Features of Long-term Planning should be Robustness & Resourcefulness" Top
|
|||||||
 |
 |
|||||||
|
||||||||
